Analyst Predicts Switch 2 May Not Match Original’s Sales, Partly Due to Backward Compatibility Challenges

The launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 later this year is expected to be a big moment in the video game industry, and many are wondering how the system is going to sell. Nintendo has not published any sales projections for the system, but one analyst has now said the new console will fail to sell as many units right away compared to the original system.

Joost Van Dreunen of Aldora said in a report that the Switch 2’s backwards compatibility support, along with its “relatively modest technical improvements,” will “ensure a slower adoption curve.” This will be particularly pronounced for cost-conscious consumers, Van Dreunen said. The analyst said the Switch 2 is projected to sell for about $400 at launch, which is $100 more than the Switch launched at in 2017. Other analysts have suggested similar price points, while one analyst believes it could go as high as $500.

Regarding backwards compatibility, Nintendo has confirmed the Switch 2 will play games from the original Switch, but not every title will be supported.

Van Dreunen did not publish a specific unit sales projection for the Switch 2. For comparison, the original Switch sold 13.12 million units during its first calendar year. A different analyst, meanwhile, is projecting the Switch 2 to have the biggest console launch in history and sell 20 million units in its first year.

Meanwhile, George Jijiashvili of Omdia told IGN that the Switch 2 could sell 14.7 million units through its first calendar year, exceeding the first-year sales of the original Switch. The Switch 2 won’t be able to sell as many lifetime units, however, Jijiashvili said. The Switch has sold more than 150 million units, making it the No. 2 best-selling console ever, only behind the PS2.

Nintendo will further discuss the Switch 2 during a Nintendo Direct broadcast on April 2. The company is expected to divulge more information about the system, its games, and more. One of the games expected to come to Switch 2 is a new Mario Kart game.